Preview: Oklahoma City Could Clinch Conference Finals Berth in Game Against Lakers
On Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers face a daunting task in Game 4 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder lead the series 3-0 and are one step away from completing a sweep and securing a spot in the Western Conference Finals.
Main Event
On the night of Monday to Tuesday, May 12, 2026, Moscow time, Game 4 of the NBA playoff second-round series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder will take place at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The defending champions lead the series 3-0 and are one win away from a sweep and a trip to the Western Conference Finals.
The game tips off at 10:30 PM ET (5:30 AM Moscow time), with live coverage on Prime Video. For the Lakers, this is a do-or-die matchup: no team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series.
Details and Statistics
Bookmakers give the Lakers little chance. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Thunder are favorites with a 10.5-point spread, and their moneyline is -500 (bet $500 to win $100), while the home team's moneyline is +375. ESPN's analytical model gives Oklahoma City a 68.6% chance of winning, Dimers gives 79%, and FanDuel a more modest 56.7%.
Experts predict the final score: Sports Betting Dime forecasts 118-111 in favor of the Thunder, Dimers 112-102, and Odds Trader 110-103. Notably, none of the services predict a Lakers win even with the spread.
Game 3 of the series, played on May 9, exposed a massive gap in class. Oklahoma City routed the Lakers 131-108, despite trailing 57-59 at halftime. In the second half, the Thunder turned on their trademark ruthless efficiency and outscored the Lakers 74-49. The hero of the game was Ajay Mitchell, who set career playoff highs with 24 points and 10 assists. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 23 points and 9 assists, and Chet Holmgren had 18 points and 9 rebounds.
The over/under for Game 4 is set at 213.5 points. The Thunder have averaged 124 points in seven regular-season and playoff games against the Lakers this season.
Context and Significance
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the defending NBA champions, entering the 2026 playoffs with a perfect 7-0 record. In the first round, the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns (4-0), and now they are close to repeating that script against the Lakers. The team has won all seven meetings against the California team this season by an average margin of 25.1 points.
The Los Angeles Lakers are without their biggest star, Luka Dončić, who continues to recover from a left hamstring injury. The Slovenian point guard, who averaged 33.5 points per game in the regular season, watched Game 3's blowout from the bench. His absence has been fatal: the Lakers cannot compete with the Thunder's roster depth.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning league MVP, is having a modest series by his standards—averaging just 21 points per game. The reason is simple: the Thunder dominate so much that their leader doesn't need to stay on the court in fourth quarters. In Game 3, he made only 7 of 20 field goals, but it didn't matter—Oklahoma City's roster depth overwhelmed the Lakers' resistance.
For LeBron James, this is likely his last chance to keep the series alive. In Game 3, he posted 19 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds, but it wasn't enough. Austin Reaves added 17 points and 9 assists, but both shot a dismal 12-for-32 from the field combined. After the loss, both James and Reaves talked about needing to find an extra gear, but can they deliver in a game that could be their season finale?
The only silver lining for the Lakers: in the regular season, the San Antonio Spurs (a potential Thunder opponent in the conference finals) beat Oklahoma City in all four meetings. But that's a future concern; for now, the Lakers need to pull off a minor miracle.
What's Next / Next Game Preview
Game 4 between the Thunder and Lakers tips off on May 11 at 7:30 PM PT (10:30 PM ET) at Crypto.com Arena. Both teams have injury absences: the Lakers are still without Dončić, and the Thunder are missing Jalen Williams and Thomas Sorber.
If Oklahoma City wins, the team will advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second straight year and get extra rest before the next round. Their opponent will be the winner of the protracted series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs, which is currently tied 2-2.
If the Lakers somehow manage to extend the series, Game 5 would be in Oklahoma City. But NBA playoff history is unforgiving: no team that has fallen behind 3-0 has ever won the series.
— Editorial Team
